Morgan Stanley ups Macau 2023 EBITDA forecasts by 70%

The group has revised its EBITDA estimations for all six of Macau’s gaming operators due to signs of market recovery.

Macau.- Morgan Stanley has raised its 2023 forecasts for Macau casino operators’ earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Amid signs of a market recovery, it’s upped its forecasts by an average of 70 per cent.

Its estimate for 2023 EBITDA is above the market consensus average for all operators except Wynn Macau Ltd whose EBITDA it expects to come in at US$3.51bn, 16.9 per cent below the market average estimate. It expects MGM China Holdings’ EBITDA to be close to US$3.18bn, 15 per cent higher than the consensus. 

It forecasts Melco Resorts and Entertainment Ltd at US$1.01bn, 30.5 per cent higher than the market-mean assessment and Sands China Limited at US$1.97bn, 39.7 per cent higher than the consensus. Galaxy Entertainment Group at US$11.93bn, 31.2 per cent above consensus, and SJM Holdings Ltd at US$3.44bn, 110.2 per cent above the expected market average.

Morgan Stanley noted that Macau operators currently have an average net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4 times and equity of about 8.5 times EBITDA. 

See also: Sands China takes lead in Macau premium mass gambling segment