IMF lowers Macau GDP forecast for 2024
The International Monetary Fund had previously forecast a 13.9 per cent rise in Macau’s gross domestic product.
Macau.- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year from 13.9 per cent to 10.6 per cent. For 2025, the IMF has adjusted the growth projection from 9.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent.
Released on Tuesday (October 22), the report notes that GDP rose by 6.9 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter after a 25.7 per cent year-on-year increase in the first.
Earlier in the year, the think tank Macau Economic Association anticipated that the city’s full-year GDP growth rate would fall between 8 and 11 per cent. The University of Macau forecast a 16.8 per cent rise.
According to the IMF forecast, the GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels next year. It predicts that inflation will stay low, with consumer prices rising by 1.1 per cent this year, with unemployment at 1.8 per cent.
In 2023, Macau’s GDP rose 80.5 per cent year-on-year in real terms. That represents a recovery to over 80 per cent of 2019 levels, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Per-capita GDP for 2023 reached MOP559,495 (US$69,393).
China forecast
The IMF has also adjusted its prediction for China’s growth, down from 5 per cent to 4.8 per cent. Last week, Beijing reported its slowest quarterly growth in 18 months.
Last year, China experienced growth of 5.2 per cent, one of its slowest in over thirty years. The IMF forecasts a further slowdown in 2025, maintaining its estimate of 4.5 per cent growth. The IMF pointed to recent policy measures by Chinese authorities as a factor that might boost near-term growth but cautioned that the long-standing crisis in the housing sector continues to pose a significant risk.
Gaming taxes reach US$8.31bn in first 9 months of the year
The Financial Services Bureau has reported that Macau collected MOP66.40bn (US$8.31bn) in taxes from casino operations in the first nine months of the year. The figure was up 45.1 per cent when compared to the same period last year.
In September, the Macau government collected MOP7.62bn (US$952m). That’s a 6.4 per cent rise compared to the preceding month. GGR for the month was MOP17.25bn (US$2.15bn). The figure was up 15.5 per cent year-on-year but down 12.7 per cent compared to the previous month. It was the lowest monthly tally of the year and was also down by 21.8 per cent compared to September 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to the 2024 budget plan, the government aims to collect MOP83.61bn (US$10.4bn) in gaming tax this year. In 2023, Macau collected MOP65.26bn (US$8.11bn), surpassing the budgeted amount by 28.3 per cent.
